Turkey's Debt

Some readers probably don’t realize that Turkey is one of the larger economies in the world. The largest in the Muslim world, except for Indonesia, and that depends on which stats you read….they are neck in neck.   But Turkey has a problem, and it may soon be the world’s problem: debt.  Lots of it. A quarter trillion dollars in government debt, but almost 1.5 trillion dollars in corporate debt, most of which is owing externally. I don’t think it’s going to be paid. Turkey’s debt, not counting consumer debt, is over twice its GDP. The problem is compounded by Turkey’s aversion to accepting IMF help. From what I can see, the attitude seems to be “screw the west…they got us into this mess by lending to us.”  If Turkey defaults, the contagion will spread. Banks who lose will want to sell other assets….fast. There may not be buyers in some asset classes, and that will then freeze those markets so that the panic selling will spread even further. 

Bitcoiners To Get Bitten?

The IRS is casting a net to gather in those who have not reported gains. See https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2017/11/29/16717416/us-coinbase-irs-records.  Now that bitcoin values have gone to the moon, this potentially makes the move profitable for the IRS and very damaging for bitcoin users.

The End of Bitcoin?

We’ve discussed Bitcoin here a few times --- how it serves the function of money but doesn’t behave like money. I have always been suspicious of it. I think there is a major collapse coming.  Sure, the price could soar much higher. There is a technological limit of 21 million bitcoins, and there are over 17 million already. Further, each new one takes more resources to create. It is unlikely that the 21 million limit will be hit because of the huge computing power (and electricity consumption for cooling and computation) that would be needed for those last few coins.

One threat to bitcoin is quantum computing technology. The day may come when the whole system can be hacked in minutes. Another problem is that the bitcoin supply cannot expand with the economy, so as money it can only be deflationary. You can’t have an economy thriving in deflation because borrowers will be hard to find. Who wants to borrow money that is relentlessly climbing in value? It has to be repaid. And who wants to spend that money? And if there are no borrowers or spenders, there is no bond market and no consumption market. Hard to picture a modern economy without a bond market or without people buying consumables. So bitcoin has limited uses. And maybe eventually no uses once government seeks to intrude into the process.